Fascinating, isn't it. You lead your party into government, as the senior partner in a coalition, after thirteen, long years in the wilderness. Five years later, you confound the pollsters, your party, yourself, just about everyone else and win an overall majority. All this, yet little over a year later, there is sustained talk, of your leadership coming to an end. How did it come to this?
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I never believed for a minute, that David Cameron wanted this referendum. He made the pledge, firstly, to placate the restless, Tory eurosceptics and secondly, in an attempt to prevent a mass exodus of Tory voters, to UKIP. Nor do I believe, that David Cameron expected to be in a position, to deliver on his promise to hold an EU in/out referendum, that is why he made it. For a considerable time, everything pointed to the 2015 general election, producing another hung parliament.
How could anyone have predicted, that the pundits and pollsters, would get it so spectacularly wrong? Dave's gamble, a sure fire winner on the face of it, proved to be a dud. The newly re-elected, Prime Minister's primary concern, was quite simply, how to hold an EU in/out referendum, without the Tory party imploding.
It would seem that he couldn't. The much vaunted, EU/UK renegotiations, turned out, as expected, to be something of a damp squib. To be fair, even if our European partners had been significantly, more generous, this simply would not have satisfied the eurosceptics. Cameron then found himself, in a classic catch-22 situation. He could either, allow Ministers, against convention, to campaign based on their conscience, rather than in line with official, Government policy. Or, alternatively, compel Ministers to toe the official Government line, thus risking high profile Cabinet resignations. Cameron opted for the first option, in the vain hope that it would prevent a party split, instead fostering an amiable, intra-party debate.
As it turns out, there was and is, no amiable intra-party debate. Instead, we have the civil war David Cameron, was so desperate to avoid. With bells on. To be fair, I never really expected an inspiring, grown up debate. The eurosceptics, were always going to make fantastical, inaccurate, lurid and misleading claims. What I wasn't quite prepared for, was just how utterly inept, the campaign to remain in the EU, would prove to be. Rather than opting to extol the virtues of EU membership, they've inexplicably chosen to repeat the mistakes of Better Together, preaching death and destruction, in the event of Brexit.
It may well be, given that it's the pro-European faction of the Tory party, that is running the remain campaign, that negativity was inevitable. The Labour Party, peculiarly silent up until recently, presumably through sheer terror of a repeat of the catastrophic results, of standing shoulder to shoulder with the Tories, during the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum, have started to stir. Just two days ago, Jeremy Corbyn, hitherto famously lukewarm towards the EU, was stating the "overwhelming case" for the UK remaining a member of the EU.
None of this, in any way, helps David Cameron. Should voters opt to remain in the EU, the eurosceptics will make life a living hell for the Prime Minister for the remainder of his term in office. With a slender majority, it may prove more palatable to Mr Cameron, to fall on his sword, rather than lurch from one crisis to the next. If Fantasy Island becomes a reality, and voters opt for Brexit, Cameron would almost certainly have to resign. It would be preposterous, to have a Prime Minister, who lead the campaign for the UK to remain in the EU, then negotiate the UK's exit from that institution.
Even if the result were close enough to warrant further negotiations with the EU, presumably resulting in more concessions in the UK's favour, followed by a second referendum, Mr Cameron, would not be the man to see the process through.
It is difficult to see where it will all end, this Old Etonian Punch & Judy show. I fear this melodrama may have some way to go. One thing is for certain, the predicament David Cameron finds himself in, is entirely self inflicted.